Modeling ASEAN Tourist Visits to Indonesia Using Nonparametric Regression with Penalized Spline Estimator
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31102/zeta.2025.10.2.113-122Keywords:
Mathematics, Statistics, Applied mathematics, Computational MathematicsAbstract
Tourism is one of the sectors that plays an important role in supporting Indonesia's national economic growth. Indonesia is one of the favorite countries for foreign tourists, especially tourists from ASEAN countries. This study aims to analyze the pattern of foreign tourist visits from ASEAN countries to Indonesia using a nonparametric regression approach with a penalized spline estimator. The data used is secondary data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency, regarding the number of tourist visits per month from January 2020 to December 2023. The results of the analysis showed that the best nonparametric regression model was obtained using a 2nd-order polynomial with 4 knots at positions 4, 19, 27, and 31. With an R-square value of 93,18% and an optimal lambda of 0,026. This research is expected to provide insights for the management of Indonesia's tourism sector, support economic growth, and promote sustainable development.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Dustin Nathanael Tagawa, Gabriella Agnes Budijono, Anisah Nabilah Ghasani, Nabila Shafa Aflaha, Dita Amelia
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