Forecasting Rice Production Volume in Pariaman City Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach

Abstract

In Indonesia, rice plays an important role as the main food source, considering that more than most of the population relies on rice as the main food source, and the demand for rice continues to increase every year along with the increasing population. Statistic Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik) reports that the consumption of rice in 2023 in Pariaman City was around 9,361.46 tons. This makes the agricultural sector, especially rice, one of the main pillars of food security in Pariaman City. This research aims to forecast the amount of rice yield in Pariaman City by applying the ARIMA method. By using ARIMA, patterns and variations in the number of rice yields in Pariaman City can be known more precisely so as to produce an accurate picture for the decision-making process. The ARIMA (0,2,1) model was chosen as the superior model based on the lowest mean square value obtained which is 0.466956, which indicates that the model is quite effective in predicting rice production. Based on the pattern of prediction results, rice paddy production for the next five periods is expected to experience a small spike from period to period, but the increase is not too significant.